Tianci Material (002709) Coverage Report for the First Time
After a thousand sails, we set off again, focusing on the ground and daily chemical Tianci materials. Since its establishment, it has been cultivating in the field of farmland and trying to achieve cost barriers through an integrated layout.
However, looking back at the company’s development path from 2016 to 2019, due to the rapid pace of integration, the tandem, beneficiation and other businesses have been replaced.
The market criticizes companies for their diversified business, and we believe that, first, the company does make mistakes because it “walks too fast”, but it also reflects that the participants are entrepreneurs with adventurous spirit, who are brave enough to try and take risks.
Second, we clearly see changes in 2019.
In 19H1, Tianci’s projects under construction were significantly 佛山桑拿网 inclined. When the price was low, Tianci’s gross profit margin and market share both increased.
At the end of 19, the company cleaned up the business, focused on it, dailyized, and set off again.
Looking at 5 years, how profitable is Stockholm industry space and leading companies?
We estimate that the global tonnage demand will be 36 in 2020 and 2025 respectively.
1 nominal, corresponding to market space of 13.63 billion, 36.9 billion.
Assume that the leading companies’ market share in 2020 and 2025 will be 22% and 25%, corresponding to revenues of 3 billion and 9.2 billion.
Based on a 12% net profit margin, this corresponds to a net profit of 3.
What is Tianci’s core competitiveness?
Tianci Materials had a similar market share with New Zepbang 北京桑拿洗浴保健 and Jiangsu Cathay in 2015-2017, but its market share increased rapidly in 2018, widening the gap with related companies.
In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2019, the gross profit margin and carbon dioxide market share of Tianci increased quarter by quarter, and the performance of logistics business was bright.
Competition one: bind important quality customers.
The domestic Ningde era is an important customer of Tianci; overseas Tianci is setting up subsidiaries to actively explore international first-line customers.
Competition 2: Reduce costs and obtain excess returns through self-produced raw materials.
According to estimates, homemade 6F can improve gross margin by 10%.
In the process, liquid 6F is used, and the cost is lower than solid 6F.
In the process flow, the recycling system of materials also reduces the cost of raw materials.
Competition 3: Actively deploy new carbonic acid additives to reserve technology for high-end power batteries.
Earnings forecast We estimate that Tianci Materials’ annual sales in 2019-2021 will be 5, 8, and 13 respectively.
The company’s operating income for 2019-2020 will be 28.
900 million, net profit attributable to mother 2.
6, 4, 6.
100 million, corresponding to PE 42x, 28x in 2020 and 2021.
Considerations 1) Electrolysis follows the growth of electric vehicles, and from the perspective of market share, Tianci is the industry leader; 2) From the perspective of industrial chain layout, the company insists on cost control as the king.We give Godsend 35xPE in 2021, corresponding to a market value of 214.
600 million with a target price of 39.
14 yuan / share, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: intensified competition in the carbon dioxide market, new energy vehicle terminal demand is less than expected, and the company’s business development is less than expected