Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) 2019 Interim Report Review: Promote Lightweight Crude Oil Structure Reform and Continuously Optimize Product Structure
Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report, reporting a series of 519 operating income.
93 trillion, a reduction of 0 a year.
37%, achieving net profit attributable to the parent company11.
3.7 billion, equivalent to EPS 0.
105 yuan, a reduction of 67 per year.
Among them, the company’s Q2 single quarter revenue reached 268.
5.6 billion, an annual increase of 1.
62%, an increase of 6 from the previous month.
84%, net profit attributable to mother in a single quarter5.
2.7 billion, equivalent to EPS0.
049 yuan, a decrease of 69 per year.
95%, a decrease of 13 from the previous month.
Opinion: Rising crude oil processing costs have lowered the company’s performance, and the company’s main raw material for crude oil lightening reform is crude oil.
Although the average oil price in 2019H1 has improved, the company’s average unit cost of crude oil processing increased by 7 due to the increase in the company’s light oil processing ratio, the depreciation of the RMB, the increase in crude oil discounts, and the increase in freight rates.
88% to 3309 yuan.
The company’s H1 crude oil processing volume in 2019 is 697 tons, with a slight increase of 1 replacement each year. The increase in processing costs and crude oil processing volume will increase the total cost by USD 1.7 billion.
In addition, due to the global high and low sulfur in 2019H1, the light and heavy crude oil price spreads narrowed, and some crude oil discounts soared, the company moderately promoted the reform of the lightweighting of crude oil structure, and strengthened the management of crude oil procurement and supply chain, continued to deepen the optimization of production and operation, and strengthened market development and downgradeThis fee reduction.
Strive for stability while continuously optimizing the product structure In the second quarter of 2019, the company continued to optimize the production structure of refined oil and chemicals on the basis of increasing the proportion of light oil processing.
The company produced gasoline, diesel, and kerosene headings 81/88/46 respectively in 19Q2, with an increase of 6.
0%, producing a diesel-to-gas ratio of 1.
08, a decrease of 11 per year.
45%, sales of diesel to steam ratio 1.
07, down 9 every year.
The company produced 21 substitutes for ethylene in Q2 2019, an increase of 7 per year.
7%, a decrease from the previous month.
8%; polyethylene 13.
6 is the lowest, the highest can be increased by 29%, and the chain is increased by 3%; the epoxy resin is the highest 7.
4 At least, the short-term increase is 68%, and the chain rate is 18%.
In addition, the company reduced the continuous decline in the production of synthetic fibers. Q2 only produced 8,000 tons of 北京spa会所 polyester, a drop of 27% from the previous month; and acrylic 3.
6 initial, down 5 from the previous month.
The operating profit of each segment in 2019H1 has declined: the synthetic fiber, resin plastics, petrochemical products, and petroleum products have EBIT of -2.
2, 3.3, 3.
$ 100 million, down 9%, 47%, 66%, and 95% each year.
The company’s 2019 E1 ton of oil EBIT is 16 yuan, which is reduced by nearly 300 yuan per year; the EBIT of ethylene per ton is 1,060 yuan, which is more than a reduction of 2,500 yuan.
Profit forecast, forecast and rating: As the refining and chemical industry increased production capacity significantly, the downward trend of the industry exceeded expectations and affected the company’s performance. Therefore, we have revised down the company’s profit forecast for the next 3 years and expect the company’s EPS in 19-21 to be 0.
30 yuan, but because the company has integrated refining and chemical equipment, still has a certain competitiveness, so maintain the “overweight” level.
Risk reminder: the risk of a sharp rise in crude oil prices; downside risks to the refining and chemical boom